Province of Ontario’s Impact to the Real Estate Market

Posted on Posted in Burlington, Market Activity, Moving, Oakville, Waterdown, YTD

We all know about the Province of Ontario and their efforts to calm this market. So what happened when they made their announcement? Immediately we saw uncertainty in the market, even before they announced action plans.

So what did we find out?  Taxes for foreign investors (with escapes so they can still be worked around)   But really, most of the plans are to spend money to “investigate”, which may or may not result in an action that may or may not actually impact the market. Just saying they were going to do something, has impacted the market.

But the question is, for how long?   Well here’s the last 60 days…

Looking at this chart, you can see daily sales. Weekends are in green and the announcement is in red.

It’s funny how the impact of the announcement seems to have little to do with the content. The market to a great extent, paused that week. But as we can see here, it’s picked up again and the next few weeks will tell us quickly if there’s really been any long term impact.

So Sales have picked up again.

What about Pricing?

In the short term pricing certainly has been impacted. While it’s still significantly higher than last year, for example in this report for Oakville showing sales for April:   Take a look at “Month of April 5 Year Sales Totals” on the top right side of the page.  You can see how our units sold are down from last year, but the average value of sales is still up over last year for both Oakville and Burlington.

But how did this look for March, before there was an announcement coming?  Did we have the expected sales and was average pricing higher(values in decline) or lower(values growing) compared to the following month of April?

Let’s look at the same report for the previous month:

Sales were up over last year for March…   So April has definitely been impacted by the Government’s talk of action.  Here they are side by side.

You can clearly see the average price in both Oakville and Burlington has dropped from March to February.  With more inventory on the market, and less buyers, competition for properties is not as hot as before the announcement.    So did the Province of Ontario impact the market as they desired?  Yes.   Is it by their action other than announcing they were doing something?  Questionable.  Is it a long term impact?  Because the taxes are retroactive to last month, there may be some long term impact from this.  Unless they don’t proceed with it.

But here’s the real question, does it significantly impact making housing more affordable?  Asking my 20 something daughter, I think we’re way past these small incremental changes making a real difference in her ability to purchase a home.

But we’ll watch.  Every REALTOR I know wants to see the market cool.    We’re still very unbalanced.

Curious how this impacts your neighbourhood specifically?  Let’s talk, I can let you know what’s going on, and even update you regularly, if you like.  – James  Click Here to Contact James